Mixed signals about India’s economy

I’m a bit confused:

RBI survey says that inflation will remain double digit for most of the year at will drop slightly at 9 per cent by the end early 2009 (Reuters reports)

Then we have the Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, telling us that interest rate will ease in the next six to 12 month, however, he does not provide any figures or substantial evidence on how this will happen.  (See Reuters report)

Then came some solid data: “India’s Exports Rise 23.5% to $14.66 Billion in June”, says Bloomberg. Now this sounds good. But if you read between the lines “the trade deficit crossed $30 billion for the
first three months of the 2008/09 fiscal year, 42 percent higher than in the previous year,” according to Reuters.

Then we find out that India is the second best place in the world to invest in after China, according to a survey by Development Counsellors International, who interviewed 281 executives.
So what does this mean?

Is India still a success story or is going through a reality check? Is it back to boom days or doomed ones again?

Well, for the time being there are more questions than answers. And stats, surveys, spin from government ministers doesn’t seem to provide any clarity to the future of the economy.