Winners and losers of the confidence vote

Manmohan Singh has little to rejoice about after having survived a confidence vote marred by bribery allegations inside and outside the parliament. However significant yesterday’s victory might be for the new UPA coalition, in May next year, when the government and opposition will have to face the entire nation, it will be a very different story. Then it will be harder to buy and trade votes.

What emerged quite clearly from yesterday’s parliamentary session is that the confidence vote had very little to do with the civilian nuclear deal with the US and the fate of India’s resilient people. What we witnessed in the Lok Sabha – the parliament – was a battle of egos, not of ideas. So the biggest loser in yesterday’s vote are the people.

The likelyhood that this government will push ahead with the reforms the country desperately needs – such as allowing greater foreign investment in several key sectors – is low, as the government feels the only way it can win popular support is by implementing populist policies.

So who is the real winner of this confidence vote? Manmohan Singh? No. Sonia Gandhi? Maybe. Mayawati, the Dalit leader? Yes.

Singh is a loser because he has just delayed of a few month the tenure of his stay in power. There is no hope for him in the future leadership of the government or the party. I’m sure the World Bank would be happy to employ him again.

Sonia Gandhi proved once again that she is the true leader of the country and she showed great skills in keeping everything together. However, the future of the party is grim and the leadership vacuum, which Congress faces once Singh leaves, will not be filled by her son Rahul, who is far from being ready to direct the party, let alone the nation.

Mayawati, also know as the “Queen of the dalits”, lower-caste, seems to be the true winner. Although she has failed to bring down the current government, her alliance with the Left might turnout to be strategically sound. Potentially she could form a new pole in the political system, which could give her a lot of leverage at the next election.

Mayawati, could easily turnout to be the Obama of India. As Americans seems ready to elect the first black president of the US, Indians might be ready to elect the first Dalit prime minister in the subcontinent. If the media picks up on this parallel it could give Mayawati a serious chance to challenge the establishment.